Pakistan FX to touch 4 year high +$23bn

To avoid boom-and-bust & for currency stability - focus on Exports.

Pakistan's FX reserve should rise to a 4-year high of $23.4 (Current = $20.4b + $500m from IMF + $2.5b from Eurobonds). All time high was $24.5b in Oct 2016. Might see historic highs as pipeline looks good for a few months.

https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/forex.pdf

With more than 5 months' import cover, FX have come a long way from low of $13.2b in Jan 2019. Economy is in a better shape. However, celebrations should be delayed until we are able to grow our exports sustainably. Imports will rise & so shall Current Account deficit.

To avoid falling back to square 1, monetary tightening & currency depreciation would be needed. The only way out is Exports growth - not just one-off big tickets FDI's in the form of refineries?. So far policy makers can rejoice. But cake-cutting can wait for Exports growth.