TI has been under tremendous political pressure snowballing from delayed entry into IMF, Hafeez's austerity, Baqar's tightening, followed by rampant inflation, no significant export growth, covid-19's impact, food crises & tariffs hike.
Such economic pressures perhaps led PM to reconsider Hafeez's economic austerity plan - which envisaged "long term" actions of debt deleveraging. However, political parties has voters to respond to & lawmakers to hand cherries for their constituents. Especially when there are rifts within the senior ranks of the party. Thus, the growth mode.
Fund vs Government Projection (Change):
Growth: 4% vs 4.2% (Rs 100b)
Fiscal Deficit: 5.5% vs 6% (Rs 260b)
Primary Balance: Rs+143b vs Rs -49b (Rs 192b)
Tax collection: Rs 8.8t vs Rs 8t (Rs 800b)
PSDP: Rs 627b vs Rs 800b (Rs 173b)
Public debt: +1 GDP higher
In other words, policy makers are prioritizing growth & delaying reforms. Complacency might kick in for tax-widening & export growth. Similarly, no tangible plan is there to reduce Circular Debt instead of increasing prices.
Economy is shifting gears. There is a lot that needs to be done and hasn’t been done. Education, tax culture, start-up, industrialization, export widening, power sector efficiencies, gas deficiency, new technology companies, Pakistan’s unicorns?, end to corruption, increasing GDP/capita and importantly, creating jobs for all. Govt is readying for electioneering. That's fine. Don't forget the long term picture.
